Argo AI
Even $3.6B from two of the world's largest automakers couldn't solve self-driving. The technology is decades, not years, away from full autonomy.
2016 → 2022
$3.6B
Autonomous Vehicles
USA
IdeaProof AI Failure Score
What Happened: The Timeline
2016
Argo AI founded by Bryan Salesky (ex-Google self-driving)
Feb 2017
Ford invests $1B over 5 years
Jun 2020
Volkswagen invests $2.6B, valuation reaches $7.25B
Mid 2022
Ford and VW conclude full autonomy is too far away
Oct 2022
Argo AI shuts down. Ford writes off $2.7B
Root Causes
Argo AI was an autonomous vehicle startup backed by Ford ($1B) and Volkswagen ($2.6B). Despite world-class engineering talent and massive resources, Ford and VW concluded that full self-driving was further away than projected and the path to profitability was unclear. Ford wrote off its entire $2.7B investment in Q3 2022. The company shut down in October 2022, with ~2,000 employees losing their jobs. Argo's failure — alongside similar shutdowns — signals that Level 4/5 autonomy remains an enormously hard problem that even automotive giants struggle to fund.
Competitors That Won
Waymo (Alphabet)
Operating commercial robotaxis in SF, Phoenix, LA
Why they won: Alphabet's deep pockets, 15+ years of R&D, patient capital with no profitability pressure
Cruise (GM)
Paused operations but backed by GM's balance sheet
Why they won: Single corporate parent with automotive manufacturing expertise
Frequently Asked Questions
Could This Failure Have Been Prevented?
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