Failed 2022

    Terra/Luna

    Algorithmic stablecoins are inherently fragile. When confidence breaks, the death spiral is unstoppable.

    Founded → Closed

    2018 → 2022

    Funding Raised

    $207M

    Industry

    Crypto/DeFi

    Country

    South Korea

    IdeaProof AI Failure Score

    82/100
    Market Fit Risk
    50
    Burn Rate Risk
    40
    Founder Risk
    80

    What Happened: The Timeline

    🚀

    2018

    Terraform Labs founded by Do Kwon

    📈

    2021

    UST reaches $18B in circulation, LUNA hits $40B market cap

    ⚠️

    May 7, 2022

    Large UST sell-off begins depeg spiral

    📉

    May 10, 2022

    Death spiral: $60B evaporates in 72 hours

    💀

    Mar 2023

    Do Kwon arrested in Montenegro with fake passport

    Root Causes

    Terra/Luna was a blockchain ecosystem built around UST, an algorithmic stablecoin pegged to $1 through a mint/burn mechanism with the LUNA token. At its peak, UST had $18B in circulation and LUNA had a $40B market cap. In May 2022, a large UST sell-off triggered a "death spiral" — as UST depegged, LUNA was minted to restore the peg, crashing its price, which further destabilized UST. $60B in value evaporated in 72 hours. Founder Do Kwon was arrested in Montenegro in 2023 and later extradited to face fraud charges.

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    Could This Failure Have Been Prevented?

    IdeaProof's AI validates market demand, competitive positioning, and business model viability in minutes — catching the exact issues that sank Terra/Luna.

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