Casper Sleep
Casper proved that mattress-in-a-box is easily replicated. 175+ competitors erased any first-mover advantage.
2014 → 2024
$340M
E-commerce/DTC
USA
IdeaProof AI Failure Score
Full Analysis
Casper pioneered the direct-to-consumer mattress-in-a-box category and IPO'd in 2020. But the low barrier to entry meant 175+ competitors (Purple, Tuft & Needle, Nectar) flooded the market, driving down prices and margins. Customer acquisition costs soared as every brand fought for the same Google and Facebook ads. Casper went private in a $286M deal (vs. $1.1B peak IPO valuation) and was later acquired by Carpenter Co. in 2024 for an undisclosed sum.
Could This Failure Have Been Prevented?
IdeaProof's AI validates market demand, competitive positioning, and business model viability in minutes — catching the exact issues that sank Casper Sleep.