Failed 2023

    Convoy

    Marketplace businesses in cyclical industries must have fortress balance sheets to survive downturns.

    Founded → Closed

    2015 → 2023

    Funding Raised

    $900M

    Industry

    Logistics/Freight

    Country

    USA

    IdeaProof AI Failure Score

    72/100
    Market Fit RiskBurn Rate RiskFounder Risk
    Market Fit Risk
    65
    Burn Rate Risk
    85
    Founder Risk
    25

    Full Analysis

    Convoy was the "Uber for trucking," connecting shippers with truck drivers through a digital freight marketplace. Valued at $3.8B with backing from Jeff Bezos and Y Combinator, the company seemed unstoppable. But the freight market collapsed in 2022-2023 as post-pandemic demand normalized. Convoy's take rate compressed as competition intensified, while its cost structure—built for hypergrowth—couldn't adapt. The company abruptly shut down in October 2023, laying off all 500 employees with minimal notice. The $900M raised evaporated. The lesson: cyclical industries require conservative financial planning. Growing aggressively during a boom creates existential risk during the inevitable bust.

    Could This Failure Have Been Prevented?

    IdeaProof's AI validates market demand, competitive positioning, and business model viability in minutes — catching the exact issues that sank Convoy.