Failed 2011

    Solyndra

    Government subsidies and policy support can evaporate. Building on policy assumptions rather than market economics is risky.

    Founded → Closed

    2005 → 2011

    Funding Raised

    $1.1B

    Industry

    CleanTech/Energy

    Country

    USA

    IdeaProof AI Failure Score

    65/100
    Market Fit RiskBurn Rate RiskFounder Risk
    Market Fit Risk
    50
    Burn Rate Risk
    70
    Founder Risk
    20

    Full Analysis

    Solyndra manufactured cylindrical solar panels and received a $535M loan guarantee from the US Department of Energy—the first under the 2009 stimulus program. The company bet on a novel design that eliminated the need for silicon, which was expensive at the time. But Chinese manufacturers flooded the market with cheap conventional silicon panels, crashing prices by 75%. Solyndra's higher-cost product became uncompetitive overnight. The company filed for bankruptcy in 2011, becoming a political flashpoint in the clean energy debate. Total losses exceeded $1.1 billion including private investment. The lesson: building a business on temporary market conditions (high silicon prices) or government policy (subsidies) creates existential risk when those conditions change.

    Could This Failure Have Been Prevented?

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